A GOP WAVE?  BARONE SAYS YES – AT 8:12 A.M. ET:  Polls shifted both ways during September, but Michael Barone now says that we may be looking at a Republican wave.  We caution that these judgments are always subject to change.  However, we like good news.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Republicans seem to be pulling away in the race to win a majority in the U.S. Senate. At least this week.

In mid-September, several polls seemed to be going the other way. The well-informed Washington Post analyst Chris Cillizza wrote that for the first time in this election cycle odds favored the Democrats keeping their majority.

Two weeks later he was singing another tune. Analysts at the Post, the New York Times and FiveThirtyEight, in addition to psephologists Charlie Cook, Stuart Rothenberg and Larry Sabato, all agreed.

What may have happened is this: Over the summer Democrats used their money advantage to savage Republican opponents. When spending got equalized in September, Republicans’ numbers rose.

So Republicans retain big leads to pick up three open seats in states carried by Mitt Romney —West Virginia, Montana and South Dakota. Republican nominees have moved ahead of three Democratic incumbents in Romney states (Alaska, Arkansas, and Louisiana) and in two target states carried by President Obama (Colorado and Iowa).

Only in North Carolina, which Romney narrowly carried, has the Republican not yet overtaken the incumbent Democrat Sen. Kay Hagan — and her edge is narrowing in the most recent polls.

And...

Early in the 2010 cycle, Barack Obama told an Arkansas House Democrat that he needn’t worry about voters because “you’ve got me.” Today all four Arkansas House seats are held by Republicans. Democratic Senate candidates in multiple states have been shunning Obama campaign appearances.

We’re watching a wave come in. We just can’t be sure how far it goes.

COMMENT:  We have to get through another four and a half weeks.  Then we must counter the excellent Democratic ground game on election day.  In the next month the Dems are going to run a major scare campaign, designed to get out their base.  In Colorado, incumbent Dem Senator Mark Udall is already running a scare campaign on abortion. 

But polls indicate that Republicans are more animated this year.  In a midterm, that's critical.

October 2,  2014